e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]The October report from the state Employment Development Department did not make for pleasant reading. Seasonally adjusted, nonfarm employment in the state declined by -26,400 jobs over the month, and by -101,300 jobs over the year (-0.7%).
Looking at the unadjusted data, the largest declines over the year came in construction (-66,100 jobs), retailing (-35,500 jobs), manufacturing (-31,600 jobs), and finance (-28,100 jobs). Adding jobs were the old reliables health services (+37,000 jobs), government (+16,000 jobs), and private education (+15,900 jobs).
In Los Angeles County, nonfarm employment in October declined by -0.4% or -15,500 jobs over the year. The largest losses came in retailing (-12,800 jobs), manufacturing (-9,800 jobs), and construction (-7.000 jobs). Increases over the year came in health services (+8,900 jobs), information (+6,900 jobs), and government (+3,800 jobs). Motion picture and sound recording was up modestly over the month (+600 jobs), and significantly over the year (+8,400 jobs). The industry was starting to ramp up feature film production, but then the Screen Actors Guild announced they would call a strike vote, which has thrown everyone into a tizzy.
Orange County’s nonfarm employment dropped by -2.3% over the year to October, and its -24,100 job loss was the largest among Southern California’s metro areas. The largest losses came in finance (-8,500 jobs), administrative services (-6,300 jobs -- this is where temporary help is classified), and construction (-5,500 jobs). Gains were few and far between, with education unchanged over the year and health services up by a modest +1,300 jobs.
The Riverside-San Bernardino area saw nonfarm employment in October fall by -1.8% or by -22,300 jobs. The largest declines were in construction (-15,500 jobs), manufacturing (-7,600 jobs), and retailing (-5,800 jobs). Again, gains were a little sparse, with health services up by +3,800 jobs and government up by +5,500 jobs.
Nonfarm employment in San Diego County fell by -0.9% or by -12,200 jobs in October. The largest declines were in construction (-5,800 jobs) and retailing (-4,100 jobs). The biggest gain was recorded by professional, scientific & technical services (+2,300 jobs). Of note was manufacturing where the employment count was down by just -400 jobs.
Ventura County’s nonfarm employment dropped by -1.9% over the year or by -5,500 jobs in October. The largest declines were in retailing (-1,100 jobs) and manufacturing and administrative services, each down by -900 jobs over the year.
In the Bay Area, it was also tough going in October. Nonfarm employment in the Oakland metro area was down by -2.1% or by -22,500 jobs. Jobs grew in the San Jose area, but only by +0.1% or by + 700 jobs over the year. Job growth in the San Francisco metro area also slowed, to +0.2% or +2,300 jobs. (Jack Kyser)
California data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/cal$PDS.pdf
LA County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/la$PDS.pdf
Orange County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/oran$PDS.pdf
Riverside-San Bernardino data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/rive$PDS.pdf
Ventura County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/vent$PDS.pdf
Oakland data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/oak$pds.pdf
San Francisco data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sanf$pds.pdf
San Jose data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sjos$pds.pdf
Unemployment rates increased again in October. The California Employment Development Department (EDD) delivered the bad news last Friday. Los Angeles County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate continued to rise from 7.7% in September to 8.4% in October, up by +3.2 percentage points from the 5.2% of the same month in 2007.October’s weak performance marks the sixteenth consecutive month that LA County’s unemployment rate has seen a year over year increase. October’s unemployment rate of 8.4% is the highest level seen since May 1996.
The seasonally adjusted employment rate for California rose to 8.2%, up from the 7.7% seen in September and up from the 5.7% of October of last year. Not since January of 1995 (8.1%) has California faced an unemployment rate this high. The U.S. unemployment rate for October was 6.5%, up by +0.4 percentage points from September and up by +1.7 percentage points from October 2007 (4.8%). The last time the U.S. unemployment rate was at 4.8% was in February of 2008.
The non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of the five-county Los Angeles Area has increased by +2.9 percentage points from October of last year, reaching 8.0%. Los Angeles County, unemployment increased by +3.2 percentage points over the last year reaching 8.2%. Joblessness increased +3.2 percentage points in the San Bernardino/Riverside Metropolitan Statistical Area, reaching a high rate of 9.5%. Ventura County saw an increase of +2.0 percentage points over last year reaching 7.2%, and Orange County experienced a +1.8 percentage point year-to-year increase reaching 6.0%.
San Diego’s unadjusted employment rate increased to 6.8% in October; up by +0.3 percentage points from last month and +2.0 percentage points from the 4.8% in October 2007.
The non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of the combined Bay Area rose by +2.0 percentage points over last year, to 6.6% in October. Unemployment increased by +2.2 percentage points over last year in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward Metropolitan Division (to 7.1%); by +2.0 percentage points in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara Metropolitan Statistical Area (reaching 6.9%); and by +1.6 percentage points year-over-year in the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City Metropolitan Division (to 5.6%). The unemployment problem is being felt all throughout California. The highest rate was in Imperial County, which reported a 27.6% unemployment rate for the month of October. (Shannon Sedgwick)
PR: http://www.edd.ca.gov/About_EDD/pdf/urate200811.pdf
The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that U.S. housing starts dropped by -4.5% in October to just 791,000 units (seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR), a new low for this down cycle. Construction was started on just 531,000 single-family homes in October, down by -3.3% from September—and the lowest level for single-family starts since October 1981 (!). In the volatile multi-family sector (apartments and condominiums), only 260,000 units were started last month (-6.8% over the month).
Total housing starts peaked back in January, 2006 at 2.27 million units according to the Census Bureau. In October, total starts were down by -68% from the peak quarter (2006q1). Single-family starts were even worse, down by -70%, while multi-family starts were “only” -31% below the peak.
Homebuilders became much more pessimistic last month, reflecting a marked deterioration in the underlying fundamentals of the housing industry. The latest monthly survey of homebuilder attitudes taken by the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) dropped to a new record low level (data go back to 1985). Current sales conditions and buyer traffic plunged, though expectations for future sales did not change from the previous month: only 19% of builders expect any improvement during the next six months.
The downturn in new home construction is now 33 months old and counting. Most builders and industry observers still expect housing construction activity to move down some more from here. They disagree though on how much farther starts will fall and how long it will take until the bottom is reached. The “optimists” expect the trough will be reached early next year, while the “pessimists” forecast declining starts throughout 2009 and possibly into 2010. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf
The Los Angeles MSA (LA-Riverside-OC) Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell for the third month in a row, declining by -0.6% in October over the previous month, following a -0.5% decline in September. However, the index is still high compared to October 2007 (up by +3.4%). Local CPIs are not seasonally adjusted. Last month’s decline was led by the transportation index, which fell by -3.4% over the month. But compared to a year ago, the transportation index was up by +3.4%. Within this group gasoline prices declined the most, falling by -9.9% over the past month, but were still up by +10.8% over the past year. The food and beverage index declined in October, falling by -0.2% over the month, but was +5.2% higher than last year’s level. The food at home index (grocery prices) fell by -0.5%, but was +6.6% higher than October 2007.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined in October (seasonally adjusted), falling by -1.0% over the previous month. However, it has risen by +3.7% in the year to October 2007. The energy index fell for three months straight, declining by -8.6% last month, following a -1.9% decline in September. However, over the past year energy prices have risen considerably, and were still up by +11.5%. Gasoline prices dropped considerably, falling by -14.2% over the month but were +15.0% higher over the year.
On the other hand, the U.S. food and beverage price index rose by +0.3% over the month. The index was up by +6.1% over the year to October 2007. The food at home index, or groceries, gained +0.1% over the month, and was up by +7.5% over the year.
Excluding food and energy prices, the U.S. core CPI declined, falling by -0.1% in October, following a +0.1% increase in September. The U.S. core index has risen by +2.2% over the past year. In comparison, the Los Angeles MSA core index increased by +2.6%, still higher than the U.S. performance. (Candice Flor Hynek)
US PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
LA PR: ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/sanfrancisco/cpilosa-table.txt
Wholesale prices for finished goods, as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI), fell for the third month in a row, declining by -2.8% in October (month-over-month, SA), following a -0.4% drop the month before. Compared with October 2007, the PPI has risen by +5.2%. The finished consumer food price index declined for the first time since February 2008, falling by -0.2% over the month, but has risen by +6.5% from October 2007. The finished energy index fell sharply, posting a -12.8% decline in October. However, it was still +5.5% higher than twelve months ago. Excluding food and energy, the core finished goods index posted a small gain, rising by just +0.4% over the month in October. Year-over-year, the core finished goods index was up by +4.4%, still uncomfortably high. However, with the declining crude oil prices and further deterioration in U.S. and global economies, many observers expect the index to fall some more. (Candice Flor Hynek)
PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf
The September data on international trade values from the Department of Commerce were quite mixed. At the Los Angeles Customs District, total two-way trade value for the month rose by 4.9% to $31.8 billion. Export values continued to hold up with an 11.6% gain during the month. Import values continued lackluster, with a 2.3% increase over the year to September. At the nine-month mark, total two-way trade value at the Los Angeles District was up by 7.1% to $274.6 billion.
At the San Francisco Customs District in September, total two-way trade values were up over the year by a weak 1.6% to $10.0 billion. Export values were up by just 2.1%, while import values rose by a more robust 10.2%. The nine-month total for San Francisco was up by 8.1% to $90.2 billion.
At the San Diego Customs District, total two-way trade values in September increased by just 1.3% to $4.7 billion. Export values moved ahead by 9.0% in September. However, import values fell by -1.9%, the second year-over-year decline in a row. The nine-month total was up by 3.6% to $40.9 billion. (Jack Kyser)
Thanksgiving, the official heralding of the holiday season is upon us. This holiday has been celebrated here in America since 1621. It made national holiday status in 1863 by Abraham Lincoln, ensuring that most of us have the day off (sorry movie theatre employees, restaurant employees, and such!). The day usually involves food, television and day after shopping, but most people don’t have a quantitative clue on how much we Americans take part in these activities. All of that is about to change with these astounding statistics on America’s day of thanks.
The estimate of turkeys raised in the U.S. this year stands at 271 million birds. Minnesota is the top producer with 49 million and North Carolina is claiming second with 39 million birds. American turkeys produced in 2007 were valued at $3.7 billion and weighed a whopping 7.9 billion pounds. That’s billion, with a B. This year farmers’ receipts are expected to total $4.3 billion, exceeding total annual sales of items such as rice and peanuts. Pretty impressive considering the retail cost of a whole turkey (frozen) in December of last year was $1.01 per pound. Not all of the birds on our table are domestic though; live turkeys imported from Canada to the U.S. from January through July of 2008 are valued at $9.2 million. That left the U.S. with a $4.9 million trade deficit in live turkeys.
But this day isn’t just about turkey. The typical holiday feast usually involves cranberries, sweet potatoes and pumpkin pie too. U.S. cranberry production for this year is forecasted at 689 million pounds. Wisconsin accounts for more than half of those berries, expecting to weigh in at 385 million pounds for 2008. Massachusetts ranks number two in cranberry production and expects to generate 190 million pounds of this tart little red berry. In 2007, the U.S. grew 1.8 billion pounds of sweet potatoes. North Carolina had the lead producing 667 million pounds. California ranked second growing 426 million pounds of sweet potatoes. U.S. pumpkin production in 2007 weighed in at 1.1 billion pounds. The state of Illinois was the top producer with 542 million pounds. California, Ohio and New York all produced over 100 million pounds. The value of all the pumpkins from major gourd producing states across the nation in 2007 amounted to $117 million. The next time a green been casserole is passed your way, you are not alone. The U.S. is contracted to produce 769,760 tons of snap beans this year.
Thanksgivings from 2003 to 2007 revealed Americans on average spent 3.7 hours watching T.V., about 1.1 hours preparing meals and 1.2 hours consuming them on this day. An average American consumes about 13.3 pounds of turkey and 4.6 pounds of sweet potatoes every year. Thanksgiving definitely facilitates these levels of consumption. After a full day of eating, drinking, watching TV and being merry, we shop. The day after Thanksgiving is one of the busiest shopping days of the year. Every year, the U.S. sees a rise in temporary worker employment beginning in November. These holiday seasonal employees are most prevalent in retail.
Whether you are celebrating your holiday in the town of Turkey (found in Texas, Louisiana or North Carolina), in one of the 5 places and towns named with a variation of Cranberry, or somewhere else in one of the 116 million households in the U.S. this year, the Kyser Center for Economic Research and the LAEDC would like to wish you a Happy Thanksgiving! (Shannon Sedgwick)
PR: http://www.census.gov/
PR: http://www.bls.gov/
December 2-3: The California Infrastructure Summit, Meeting the Infrastructure Challenge
The objective of this gathering is to serve as hands-on summit for Californian decision makers and stakeholders, from both the public sector and the private sectors, in order to find ways to move their agenda forward and solve the imminent infrastructure crisis. It will seek to identify the complexities of PBI initiatives and how to move these initiatives through complex legislative processes; to address the nuances of public-private partnerships that are best suited for California; to review how projects can be developed at the municipal level; and to consider project implementation of specific regional transportation initiatives.
LAEDC members receive 15% discount on the delegate fees.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009: 2009-2010 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook
The Economic Data Global Express (e-EDGE) is a free service of the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC). Permission to quote any proprietary part of this release is granted given proper credit. Distribution is allowed provided that no modifications are made to the original content. Sponsors of this service do not necessarily endorse all opinions stated herein. For more information, please e-mail to research@laedc.org. To contact LAEDC, please call 213-622-4300.
Subscribe to e-EDGE and receive current economic news and major developments. Your e-mail address will not be disclosed to any outside party (including e-EDGE sponsors) under any circumstances.
To send us comments regarding e-EDGE, please e-mail to research@laedc.org.