e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]The Employment Development Department just released the September employment data for California and its metro areas, and it was more bad news. Seasonally adjusted, the state lost -11,600 jobs from August to September, while total nonfarm employment was down over the year by -0.5% or -77,200 jobs.
Looking at the unadjusted detail, the largest job losses over the year to September came in retail (-30,300 jobs), finance & insurance (-27,300 jobs) and manufacturing (-27,100 jobs). As to gains over the year, the usual suspects headed the list: health services (+36,000 jobs), government (+25,700 jobs) and professional, scientific & technical services (+17,600 jobs).
Los Angeles County saw nonfarm employment decline by -0.6% or -23,600 jobs over the year to September. Adding jobs were health services (+8,600 jobs), government (+4,200 jobs) and professional, scientific & technical services (+3,900 jobs). In the loss column were retail (-11,600 jobs), construction (-9,900 jobs) and finance & insurance (-6,600 jobs). The motion picture industry’s September job count was 132,200 persons, the highest so far this year, but still -3,300 jobs below last year. The SAG negotiations drag on, with a call now for a Federal Mediator to be brought in.
Nonfarm employment in Orange County during September declined by -2.5% or -33,700 jobs over the year. Sectors shedding jobs included finance & insurance (-8,500 jobs), construction (-5,600 jobs) and administrative services (which includes temporary help)
(-5,500 jobs). Only three sectors recorded gains over the year, and they were paltry; government (+4,100 jobs), health services (+1,000) and education (+800 jobs).
The Riverside-San Bernardino area saw nonfarm employment slide by -1.6% or -19,700 jobs over the year to September. In the plus column were government (+6,500 jobs), health services (+3,000 jobs) and leisure & hospitality services (+1,400 jobs). Construction employment slid over the year (-14,700 jobs), as did manufacturing (-7,200 jobs) and retailing (-5,300 jobs).
San Diego County saw nonfarm employment decline by a comparatively modest -0.4% or -5,100 jobs in September. Year-over-year increases came in leisure & hospitality services (+2,800 jobs), government (+2,400 jobs) and professional, scientific & technical services (+2,300 jobs). The biggest laggards were construction (-6,800 jobs) and retail (-3,000 jobs).
Nonfarm employment in Ventura County during September fell by -2.4% or -7,000 jobs over the year. As to gains over the year, the roster was sparse with only natural resources (+100 jobs), transportation & warehousing (+500 jobs) and health services (+500 jobs) making the cut. The largest loss over the year came in construction (-1,800 jobs).
The September jobs news from the Bay Area was mixed. The Oakland metro area saw a -2.0% or -21,400 job decline over the year, while the San Jose area was about flat (+0.1% or +700 jobs). The best news came from the San Francisco metro area, with a +0.5% or +4,900 jobs gain over the year. (Jack Kyser)
California data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/cal$PDS.pdf
LA County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/la$PDS.pdf
Orange County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/oran$PDS.pdf
Riverside-San Bernardino data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/rive$PDS.pdf
Ventura County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/vent$PDS.pdf
Oakland data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/oak$pds.pdf
San Francisco data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sanf$pds.pdf
San Jose data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sjos$pds.pdf
The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released unemployment figures for September last Friday. Los Angeles County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged down to 7.8% from 7.9% in August but was well up from 5.2% twelve months earlier. September marked the first month-to-month decrease in the county unemployment rates since February 2008 and was the sixteenth consecutive month that the rate increased from a year earlier.
California’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was unchanged in September from August at 7.7% but up from 5.6% a year earlier. The state unemployment rate last month remained the highest since March 1996 (also 7.7%). The U.S. unemployment rate also remained unchanged in September at 6.1% but was up from 4.7% from 12 months earlier. The U.S. unemployment rate last month remained the highest since September 2003 (also 6.1%).
The not seasonally adjusted five-county Los Angeles area unemployment rate rose by +2.3 percentage points in September (to 7.6%) from a year earlier. Joblessness increased by +2.8 percentage points in Riverside County (to 9.5%), by +2.6 percentage points in both Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties (to 7.8% and 8.6% respectively), by +1.7 percentage points in Ventura County (to 7.0%), and by 1.5 percentage points in Orange County (to 5.7%).
San Diego County’s unadjusted unemployment rate increased to 6.4% in September, up by +1.6 percentage points from 12 months earlier.
The Bay Area’s combined unemployment rate (also not seasonally adjusted) increased by +1.5 percentage points in September to 6.2%. Joblessness increased by +1.8 percentage points in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward Metropolitan Division (to 6.7%), by +1.6 percentage points in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara Metropolitan Statistical Area (to 6.5%), and by +1.2 percentage points in the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City Metropolitan Division (to 5.3%). (Eduardo J. Martinez)
PR: http://www.edd.ca.gov/About_EDD/pdf/urate200810.pdf
Total container traffic at the combined Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles in September decreased by -10.7% from a year earlier in what is the traditional peak shipping month ahead of the holiday shopping season. September marked the fourteenth consecutive month of year-over-year decreases in total container traffic at the two ports. Loaded inbound containers decreased by -12.1% to 646,296 TEUs last month from a year earlier (also for the fourteenth consecutive month).
Loaded outbound containers at the combined ports continued their 43-month streak of year-over-year growth. However, September’s year-over-year increase of +0.9% (to 273,101 TEUs) was the smallest since January 2005 (-3.1%) and comes after a 16-month stretch of double digit gains. Last month’s slowdown in loaded container activity is a worrisome signal. With the appreciation of the U.S. dollar and the slowing of economic growth in the rest of the word, supports that had boosted demand for U.S. exports in the past few years appear to be weakening.
Year-to-date (YTD), container traffic at the combined ports has decreased by -7.5% to 10.8 million TEUs from the same period in 2007. YTD, loaded outbound containers have increased by +19.6% to 2.4 million TEUs compared to the first nine months of 2007. Loaded inbound containers decreased by -8.9% over the same period to 5.6 million TEUs.
Container traffic decreased in September at both the Port of Long Beach (-15.8% to 554,837 TEUs) and at the Port of Los Angeles (-6.7% to 692,890 TEUs) from 12 months earlier. The Port of Long Beach experienced its first year-over-year decline in loaded export containers (-3.9% to 129,630 TEUs) since February 2007. The Port of Los Angeles recorded an increase in loaded export containers (+5.7% to 143,471 TEUs). However, the increase was the smallest since July 2007 (+4.4%). YTD, total container traffic fell by -10.5% to 4.905 million TEUs at the Port of Long Beach and by -4.8% to 5.923 million TEUs at the Port of Los Angeles compared to the first nine months of 2007. (Eduardo J. Martinez)
Port of Long Beach PR: http://www.polb.com/economics/stats/latest_teus.asp
Port of Los Angeles PR: http://www.portoflosangeles.org/maritime/stats.asp
September was a poor month in most parts of the retail world. Total retail and food services sales decreased by -1.2% last month, following revised declines of -0.4% and -0.6% in August and July respectively. Only two of thirteen sectors reported higher sales in September compared to August. Health & personal care stores led the way—if you can call it that—with a sales increase of just +0.2% over the month, followed by gasoline stations (up by +0.1%). Eleven sectors reported over-the-month sales declines. The laggards included: motor vehicle & parts dealers (down by -3.8%); furniture & home furnishings stores and clothing & accessories stores (both with sales down by -2.3%); electronics & appliance stores (-1.5%) and sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores (-1.1%). Within the general merchandise sector, department store sales dropped by -1.5%, while sales of other general merchandisers (including warehouse clubs & supercenters) edged up by +0.1%. [Sales figures in this paragraph are seasonally adjusted.]
Year-to-date (and not seasonally adjusted), total retail & food services sales have grown by +2.5% compared to the first nine months of 2007, but were up by +5.4% excluding automotive. Gasoline stations were still the growth leader, with sales up by +20.5% over the year due to higher prices earlier in the year. Nonstore retailers took a distant number two spot followed by food & beverage stores (with sales up by +6.4% and +5.9% respectively). Sales of three retail sectors have lagged significantly all during 2008: motor vehicle & parts dealers (with a -8.4% decline so far this year), furniture & home furnishings stores (down by -6.2%), and building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-2.3%). The general merchandise sector registered an overall increase of +4.6%. However, department store sales were down by -3.4% year-to-date, while the remainder of the sector—including warehouses and supercenters—reported sales up by +9.0%, which would place this group ahead of all retail sectors except gasoline stations. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that U.S. housing starts dropped by -6.3% in September to just 817,000 units (seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR), a new low for this down cycle and the lowest level for total housing starts since January 1991. Construction was started on only 544,000 single-family homes in September, down by -12.0% from August—and the lowest level for single-family starts since—hold your breath—February 1982! In the volatile multi-family sector (apartments and condominiums), 273,000 units were started last month (+7.5% over August).
Total housing starts peaked back in January, 2006 at 2.27 million units according to the Census Bureau. By September, total starts were down by -61% from the peak quarter (2006q1). Single-family starts were even worse, down by -69%, while multi-family starts were “only” -28% below the peak.
Homebuilders became markedly more pessimistic last month, as the underlying fundamentals in the housing industry became more negative. The latest monthly survey of homebuilder attitudes taken by the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) dropped down to a new record low level (data go back to 1985). Current sales conditions are extremely slow, and buyer traffic is at record low levels. Expectations for future sales aren’t much better, with fewer than 20% of builders anticipating any improvement during the next six months.
The downturn in new home construction is now 32 months old and counting. Even so, most builders and industry observers expect housing construction activity to move down some more from here. They only disagree on how much farther starts will fall and how long it will take until the bottom is reached. At this point, the “pessimists” expect housing starts to continue falling through 2009 and perhaps into 2010, while the “optimists” think the bottom will come some time this winter. The actual outcome will depend heavily on when the financial crisis eases up. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR: http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf
The Los Angeles MSA (LA-Riverside-OC) Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell for the second month in a row, declining by -0.5% in September over the previous month, following a -0.6% decline in August. However, the index is still quite high compared to September 2007 (up by +4.5%). Local CPIs are not seasonally adjusted. Last month’s decline was led by the transportation index, which fell by -3.3% over the month. But compared to September 2007, the transportation index was still up by +9.3%. Within this group gasoline prices declined the most, falling by -7.4% over the month. However, they were still up by +30.3% over the year. Conversely, the food and beverage index continued to increase in September, rising by +0.7% over the month, and was +5.9% higher than last year’s level. The food at home index (grocery prices) advanced by +0.8%, and was +7.8% higher than September 2007.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in September (seasonally adjusted), following a -0.1% decline the previous month. However, it has risen by +4.9% in the year to September 2007. The energy index fell for two-months straight, declining by -1.9% last month, following a -3.1% decline in August. However, over the past year energy prices have risen considerably, up by +23.1%. Gasoline prices fell by -0.8% over the month but were +31.8% higher than September 2007. [Crude oil has fallen by almost -50% since its peak in July 11, 2008 at $147/barrel.]
On the other hand, the U.S. food and beverage price index rose by +0.6% over the month, the same as in August. The index was up by +6.1% over the year to September 2007. The food at home index, or groceries, gained +0.6% over the month, and was up by +7.5% over the year.
Excluding food and energy prices, the U.S. core CPI rose by a tame +0.1% in September, following a +0.2% increase in August. The U.S. core index has risen by +2.5% over the past year. In comparison, the Los Angeles MSA core index increased by +2.7%, still higher than the U.S. performance. (Candice Flor Hynek)
US PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
LA PR: http://www.bls.gov/ro9/cpilosa.htm
Wholesale prices for finished goods, as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI), fell for the second month in a row, declining by -0.4% in September (month-over-month, SA), following a -0.9% drop the month before. Compared with September 2007, the PPI has risen by +8.7%. The finished consumer food price index continued to be elevated, rising by +0.2% over the month, and has risen by +8.1% from September 2007. The finished energy index also fell for two-months straight, posting a -2.9% decline in September. However, it was still +22.4% higher than twelve months ago. Excluding food and energy, the core finished goods index posted a small gain, rising by just +0.4% over the month in September. Year-over-year, the core finished goods index was up by +4.0%, still uncomfortably high. However, with the further deterioration in U.S. and global economies and declining crude oil prices, many observers expect the index to follow suit as well.
The wholesale prices for intermediate goods also declined, falling by -1.2% in September (month-over-month). The declines were mostly in energy goods. The overall intermediate goods index has risen at double-digit rates (year-over-year) since March 2008, and was still up by +15.4% in September. Excluding food and energy prices, the core index for intermediate goods fell for the first time this year, falling by -0.3% over the month. However, the core intermediate goods index has risen by +12.1% over the past twelve months.
Wholesale prices for crude goods (goods ready for further processing) fell significantly, declining by -7.9% in September (month-over-month), following an -11.9% decline in August. Compared to a year ago, the overall crude goods index was up by +38.1%. Excluding food and energy prices, the core index for crude goods declined by -1.9% in August. The core crude goods index has risen by +26.0% over the past twelve months. (Candice Flor Hynek)
PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf
China has just released summaries of economic data for the first three quarters of this year. In 2008, China has been impacted by natural disasters and the winding down of massive infrastructure investments leading up to the summer Olympics in Beijing. The Chinese economy grew by + 9.9% during the first three quarters of 2008, down by -2.3 percentage points from the same period last year. Investment increased by +27.0% (up by +1.3 percentage points), consumption increased by +22.0% (up by +6.1 percentage points), and industrial production increased by +15.2% (down by -3.3 percentage points) from 2007.
China’s trade surplus dropped by $4.7 billion to $181.0 billion from the first three quarters of 2007 to the same period in 2008 as exports to the United States and other major economies began to slowdown. China’s two-way trade with the rest of the world increased by +25.2% in the first nine months of 2008, up by +1.7 percentage points from the same period in 2007. Exports increased by +22.3%, a slowdown of -4.8 percentage points, and imports increased by 29.0%, an increase of +9.9 percentage points from a year earlier. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into China jumped by +39.9% (an increase of +29.0 percentage points) in the first nine months of 2008. (Eduardo J. Martinez)
PR: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/newsandcomingevents/t20081020_402510731.htm
October 20-24: Los Angeles County Technology Week
L.A. Tech Week events are designed to inform those with an interest in technology - businesses that develop technologies and businesses that employ technologies, developers, entrepreneurs, investors, venture capitalists, teachers and students - about the state of the technology landscape in Los Angeles County.
Wednesday, October 22: WTCA L.A. - Long Beach and Asia Society of Southern California presents: "China: After the Olympics"
An in-depth look at China's current economic and political environment and its opportunities ahead with Stephen Joske, Director of Country Analysis, China Forecasting Service, Economist Intelligence Unit; and Donald H. Straszheim, Vice Chairman, Roth Capital Partners, LLC.
Tuesday, October 28: Milken Institute State of the State Conference
The Milken Institute’s 10th Annual State of the State Conference brings together California’s leading lawmakers, senior business executives, investors, academic experts, journalists and other decision-makers for an extraordinary day of discussion, debate and analysis about the state’s future. The conference will be held at Beverly Hilton Hotel, Beverly Hills, CA.
Tickets Now Available! Monday, November 17: The LAEDC 13th Annual Eddy Awards®
The Eddy Awards® is a cocktail, dinner, and awards gala to support fulfillment of the LAEDC mission to attract, retain, and grow businesses and jobs for the regions of Los Angeles County. The Awards were introduced by the LAEDC in 1996 to celebrate individuals, organizations, and now cities that demonstrate exceptional contributions to positive economic development in the region. Honorees: The Walt Disney Company, and Rick Caruso, developer of The Grove and the Americana.
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