e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]Last Friday, the California Employment Development Department released the August jobs report for the state and metro areas. The continuing downturn in housing-related industries combined with budget-related layoffs of state workers in August to produce another downturn in California’s employment. From July to August, seasonally adjusted, the state lost -7,700 nonfarm jobs, marking six consecutive months of monthly declines. This followed on the heels of the revised June-July decline of -15,000 jobs from the original estimated decline of -14,900 jobs. The largest declines from July occurred in manufacturing (-7,800 jobs), government (-6,000 jobs), administrative and support services (-4,800 jobs), and leisure and hospitality (-3,500 jobs).
Over the year to August, the state lost -72,700 jobs. Looking at the details, the largest losses over the year came in construction (-79,200 jobs), retail trade (-30,900), finance & insurance (-30,000 jobs), and manufacturing (-28,800 jobs). On the plus side, health services added 37,300 jobs, government added 26,300 jobs, and professional, scientific & technical services were up by 13,400 jobs.
Nonfarm employment in Los Angeles County declined by -0.4% or by -16,800 jobs over the year to August. The largest losses were in retail (-11,500 jobs), construction (-10,000 jobs), and finance & insurance (-7,600 jobs). There were some industry gains over the year, with the best performance in health services (+8,200 jobs), and government (+6,500 jobs).
Nonfarm employment in Orange County declined by -1.8% or by -26,600 jobs over the year in August. The largest losses over the year were in finance & insurance (-10,800 jobs), professional and business services (-6,400 jobs), and construction (-5,900 jobs). The largest gain over the year was +3,300 jobs in educational and health services.
The Riverside-San Bernardino area’s nonfarm employment declined by -2.0% or by -25,200 jobs over the year to August. The biggest losses came in construction (-15,800 jobs), and manufacturing (-6,900 jobs). Educational and health services had the largest increase (+3,300 jobs).
Of all Southern California counties, Ventura County had the largest percentage drop in employment in August from a year earlier with a decline of -2.9% (-8,600 jobs). The largest job losses occurred in construction (-2,500 jobs), retail trade (-1,600 jobs), and professional and business services (-1,600 jobs). The largest increase over the last 12 months occurred in educational and health services (+500 jobs).
San Diego County’s August nonfarm employment declined by -0.4% or by -5,700 jobs. The largest job losses over the year were in construction and financial activities (-7,200 jobs and -4,700 jobs respectively), while government and educational and health services added +3,400 jobs and +3,300 jobs respectively. (Eduardo J. Martinez)
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate
| Area | Aug-08 | Jul-08 | Jun-08 | Aug-07 | Change Since Last Month | Change Since Last Year |
| United States | 6.1 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| California | 7.7 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 0.3 | 2.2 |
| Los Angeles Co. | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 2.9 |
Not seasonally adjusted unemployment rate
| Area | Aug-08 | Jul-08 | Jun-08 | Aug-07 | Change Since Last Month | Change Since Last Year |
| United States | 6.1 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| California | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 2.1 |
| Los Angeles Co. | 8.2 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 0.2 | 2.9 |
| Orange Co. | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino Cos. | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 0.2 | 2.8 |
| Ventura Co. | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| San Diego Co. | 6.4 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 4.8 | -0.1 | 1.6 |
| Oakland MD | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 0.1 | 1.8 |
| San Francisco MD | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| San Jose MSA | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
California data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/cal$PDS.pdf
LA County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/la$PDS.pdf
Orange County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/oran$PDS.pdf
Riverside-San Bernardino data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/rive$PDS.pdf
Ventura County data: http://www.calmis.cahwnet.gov/file/lfmonth/vent$PDS.pdf
Oakland data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/oak$pds.pdf
San Francisco data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sanf$pds.pdf
San Jose data: http://www.calmis.ca.gov/file/lfmonth/sjos$pds.pdf
The California Employment Development Department (EDD) released unemployment figures for August last Friday. Los Angeles County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 7.9% from 7.5% in July and from 5.0% twelve months earlier. August was the fifteenth consecutive month that the County’s unemployment rate increased from a year earlier and was at the highest level since August 1996 (8.0%).
California’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 7.7% in August, up from 7.4% in July and from 5.5% from a year earlier. The state unemployment rate last month was the highest since March 1996 (also 7.7%). The U.S. unemployment rate was 6.1% in August, up from 5.7% in July and from 4.7% in August 2007. The U.S. unemployment rate last month was the highest since September 2003 (also 6.1%).
The not seasonally adjusted five-county Los Angeles area unemployment rate rose by +2.6 percentage points in August (to 7.9%) from a year earlier. Joblessness increased by +2.9 percentage points in both Los Angeles and Riverside counties (to 8.2% and 9.7% respectively), by +2.6 percentage points in San Bernardino County (to 8.6%), by +1.7 percentage points in Ventura County (to 7.1%), and by 1.6% in Orange County (to 5.8%).
San Diego County’s unadjusted unemployment rate increased to 6.4% in August, up by +1.6 percentage points from 12 months earlier.
The Bay Area’s combined unemployment rate (also not seasonally adjusted) increased by +1.5 percentage points in August to 6.3%. Joblessness increased by +1.8 percentage points in the Oakland-Fremont-Hayward Metropolitan Division (to 6.8%), by +1.6 percentage points in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara Metropolitan Statistical Area (to 6.6%), and by +1.2 percentage points in the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City Metropolitan Division (to 5.5%). (Eduardo J. Martinez)
PR: http://www.edd.ca.gov/About_EDD/pdf/urate200809.pdf
The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that U.S. housing starts dropped by -6,2% in August to just 895,000 units (seasonally adjusted annual rate or SAAR), a new low for this down cycle. Construction was started on just 630,000 single-family homes in August, down by -1.4% from July—and the lowest level for single-family starts since January 1991. In the volatile multi-family sector (apartments and condominiums), only 265,000 units were started last month (-15.1%).
Total housing starts peaked back in January, 2006 at 2.27 million units according to the Census Bureau. In August, total starts were down by -62% from the peak quarter (2006q1). Single-family starts were even worse, down by -64%, while multi-family starts were “only” -30% below the peak.
Homebuilders became a bit more optimistic last month, though the underlying fundamentals in the housing industry remain quite negative. The latest monthly survey of homebuilder attitudes taken by the NAHB (National Association of Home Builders) ticked up a bit from the record low level set in July-August (data go back to 1985). Sales and buyer traffic are still very slow, but expectations for future sales increased. Some 30% of builders expect improvement during the next six months due to the recently enacted tax credit for first-time homebuyers, the government’s rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and somewhat lower mortgage rates.
The downturn in new home construction is now 31 months old and counting. Most builders and industry observers still expect housing construction activity to move down some more from here. They disagree though on how much farther starts will fall and how long it will take until the bottom is reached. The “optimists” still expect the trough will be reached by the end of this year, while the “pessimists” forecast declining starts well into 2009 or 2010. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR : http://www.census.gov/const/newresconst.pdf
The Los Angeles MSA (LA-Riverside-OC) Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined by -0.6% in August over the previous month, following a +0.4% increase in July. However, the index is still quite high compared to August 2007 (up by +5.1%). Local CPIs are not seasonally adjusted. Last month’s decline was led by the transportation index, which fell by -3.8% over the month. But compared to August 2007, the transportation index was still up by +13.3%. Within this group gasoline prices declined the most, falling by +9.9% over the month but up by +42.5% over the year. On the other hand, the food and beverage index increased in August, rising by +0.5% over the month, and was +5.2% higher than last year’s level. The food at home index (grocery prices) increased by +0.9%, and was +7.1% higher than August 2007.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined in August (seasonally adjusted), falling by -0.1% over the month, but was up by +5.4% from August 2007. The decline was led by the energy index, which fell by -3.1% over the month, following a +4.0% increase the month before. However, over the past year energy prices have risen sharply, up by +27.2%. Gasoline prices fell by -4.2% over the month in August but were +35.6% higher than August 2007.
On the other hand, the food and beverage price index rose by +0.6% over the month following a +0.8% increase in July. They were up by +5.9% over the year to August 2007. The food at home index, or groceries, gained over the month, rising by +0.8%, and was up by +7.5% over the year.
Excluding food and energy prices, the U.S. core CPI rose by a moderate +0.2% in August, following a +0.3% increase in July. The U.S. core index has risen by +2.5% over the past year. In comparison, the Los Angeles MSA core index increased by +2.8%, still higher than the U.S. performance. (Candice Flor Hynek)
US PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
LA PR: http://www.bls.gov/ro9/cpilosa.htm
Total container traffic at the combined Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles in August decreased by -3.2% from a year earlier. Year-to-date (YTD), container traffic has decreased by -7.0% to 9.6 million TEUs from the same period in 2007.
August marked the thirteenth consecutive month of year-over-year decreases in total container traffic at the combined ports reflecting consumers’ and businesses’ declining appetite for imports as the U.S. economy continues to slow. Year-to-date (YTD), loaded inbound containers decreased by -8.5% to 4.9 million TEUs from the first eight months of 2007. Compared to August 2007, loaded inbound containers decreased by -2.4% to 684,311 TEUs last month.
In stark contrast, however, the combined ports had a record month in terms of the number of loaded outbound containers (328,730 TEUs for an increase of +17.9%). The quantity of loaded outbound containers has increased year-over-year every month since January 2005, as the U.S. dollar weakened against major world currencies making U.S. goods more affordable to foreign consumers and businesses. YTD, loaded outbound containers have increased by +22.0% to 2.4 million TEUs compared to the first seven months of 2007.
Total container traffic decreased in August at the Port of Long Beach (-13.3% to 572,256 TEUs) but increased at the Port of Los Angeles (+5.9% to 757,069 TEUs) from 12 months earlier. The Port of Los Angeles’ total last month was the second highest ever behind only October 2006 (800,064 TEUs) largely due to strong growth in loaded outbound container traffic. YTD, container traffic was down by -9.9% to 4.350 million TEUs at the Port of Long Beach and by -4.6% to 5.230 million TEUs at the Port of Los Angeles compared to the first eight months of 2007. (Eduardo J. Martinez)
Port of Los Angeles: http://portoflosangeles.org/maritime/stats.asp
Port of Long Beach: http://polb.com/economics/stats/latest_teus.asp
Tuesday, September 16: Los Angeles NABE – What is a Recession, Anyway? with Dr. Edward Leamer, Director of UCLA Anderson Forecast
Well renowned and respected economist Dr. Edward Leamer will share his views on our current economic situation.
Thursday, September 25: South Bay Economic Development Partnership: 14th Annual Economic Forecast Conference
The conference is your opportunity to learn about the present economy and how to best prepare for its future!
Tickets Now Available! Monday, November 17: The LAEDC 13th Annual Eddy Awards®
The Eddy Awards® is a cocktail, dinner, and awards gala to support fulfillment of the LAEDC mission to attract, retain, and grow businesses and jobs for the regions of Los Angeles County. The Awards were introduced by the LAEDC in 1996 to celebrate individuals, organizations, and now cities that demonstrate exceptional contributions to positive economic development in the region. Honorees: The Walt Disney Company, and Rick Caruso, developer of The Grove and the Americana.
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