e-EDGE is now available as an RSS feed. [Click here to subscribe to it.]August was not a good month in many parts of the retail world. Total retail and food services sales decreased by -0.3% last month, following a revised decline of -0.5% in July. Just five of thirteen sectors reported higher sales in August compared to July. Motor vehicle & parts dealers led the way, with a sales increase of +1.9% over the month, followed at some distance by food & beverage stores (up by +0.7%), sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores (+0.5%), health & personal care stores (+0.2%), and food services & drinking places (restaurants & bars to you and me; also up by +0.2%). Sales of furniture & home furnishings stores did not change in August. Seven sectors reported over-the-month sales declines: gasoline stations (down by -2.5% due to lower prices for once); nonstore retailers (mostly electronic shopping and catalog mail order houses) with sales down by -2.3%; building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-2.2%); electronics & appliance stores (-1.3%) and miscellaneous store retailers (-1.0%). Within the general merchandise sector, department store sales dropped by -1.5%, while sales of other general merchandisers (including warehouse e clubs & supercenters) were up by +0.5%.
Year-to-date, total retail & food services sales have grown by +2.8% compared to January-August 2007, but were up by +5.6% excluding automotive. Gasoline stations were still the growth leader, with sales up by +21.1% over the year due to higher prices. Nonstore retailers occupied the number two spot along with food & beverage stores (both with sales up by +6.2%). Sales of restaurants & bars ranked number four (sales up by +4.7%). Sales of three retail sectors have lagged significantly in 2008: motor vehicle & parts dealers (with a -7.7% decline over the year), furniture & home furnishings stores (down by -5.6%), and building material & garden equipment & supplies dealers (-2.9%). The general merchandise sector was split. Department store sales were down by -2.9% year-to-date, while the remainder of the sector—including warehouses and supercenters—reported sales up by +9.5%. (Nancy D. Sidhu)
PR : http://www.census.gov/marts/www/marts_current.pdf
Wholesale prices for finished goods, as measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI), fell for the first time in seven months, declining by -0.9% in August (month-over-month, SA), following a +1.2% increase the month before. Compared with August 2007, the PPI has risen by +9.6%. In fact, the gains from past three month were the fastest annual pace since June 1981. The finished consumer food price index rose by +0.3% in August, the same increase as the previous month. However, wholesale food prices were still +9.1% higher than August 2007. The finished energy index posted a -4.6% decline in August. However, it was still +27.4% higher than twelve months ago. Excluding food and energy, the core finished goods index posted a small gain, rising by just +0.2% over the month in August. Year-over-year, the core finished goods index was up by +3.6%, still above the “comfort zone” level. However, with the further deterioration in U.S. and global economies and declining crude oil prices, the index could be expected to follow suit as well. How much? We’ll just have to wait and see.
The wholesale prices for intermediate goods also declined – the first in more than a year, falling by -0.2% in August (month-over-month). The declines were mostly in energy goods. The overall intermediate goods index has risen at double-digit rates (year-over-year) since March 2008, and was up by +16.7% in August. Excluding food and energy prices, the core index for intermediate goods rose by +1.7% over the month. The core intermediate goods index has risen by +12.5% over the past twelve months.
Wholesale prices for crude goods (goods ready for further processing) fell significantly, declining by -11.9% in August (month-over-month), following a +4.2% increase in July. Compared to a year ago, the overall crude goods index was up by +38.1%. Excluding food and energy prices, the core index for crude goods declined by -1.9% in August. The core crude goods index has risen by +33.2% over the past twelve months. (Candice Flor Hynek)
PR: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf
California exports increased by 16.7% to $13.3 billion in July from a year earlier; however, the Golden State trailed Texas with its increase of 37.5% to $15.2 billion in exports as measured in terms of U.S. Principal Parties of Interest (USPPI). Texas edged out California in the export of manufactured goods ($12.7 billion to $9.3 billion) in July, while California maintained its perennial position as the dominant exporter of non-manufactured goods ($1.6 billion versus $1.0 billion). Texas maintained its lead in July for year-to-date total exports with $92.8 billion in exports (an increase of 26.0% from a year ago) compared to $90.1 billion for California (an increase of 12.0% from a year ago).
Using the BEA’s Origin of Movement (OM) series, Texas again led the nation in July with $18.4 billion in total exports, a year-over-year increase of 31.5%. During that same period, California saw its total exports increase by 20.5% to $12.8 billion. California’s exports of manufactured goods increased by 10.9% year-over-year to $8.9 billion, while manufactured goods exports from Texas jumped by 21.8% to $15.1 billion. California’s non-manufactured exports increased by 27.4% to $1.6 billion while Texas’ non-manufactured exports skyrocketed by 62.1% to $1.2 billion. Year-to-date, California total exports have increased by 13.8% to $86.0 billion, and Texas total exports have increased by 22.5% to $115.8 billion from the same period in 2007.
State export data by commodity are not available by USSPI. However, commodity data is available for OM state export figures. Waste products, oil products, and motor vehicles made the largest contributions to year-over-year growth of California OM exports in July compared to a year earlier. Oil products contributed just under half of the year-over-year growth in Texas OM exports during the same period.
The USPPI measure allocates export trade value according to the location of companies having the greatest economic interest in an international transaction, while OM measures trade values at the point where international shipments begin, often at consolidation points near border crossings or other ports of exit. Given its long border with Mexico, Texas is home to numerous international border crossings and warehousing facilities, as well as major rail links between the United States and Mexico. Industry observers believe that many shipments originating in other states (including California) are credited as Texas exports to Mexico under the OM state export series. (Eduardo J. Martinez)
State export (OM):
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/exh2s.txt
State export (USSPI): http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/zip/index.html
The State Controller issued a Statement of the General Fund Cash Receipts and Disbursements for August 2008, which showed that general fund revenues were down from last year. Total receipts in July through August equaled $11.7 billion. This was $228 million (-3.2%) less than the comparable period in 2007.
Retail sales tax revenue showed the largest decrease for the July-August 2008 period, $325 million (-9.3%) less than last year. Personal income taxes were reported down as well; -2.9% (-$89 million) below last year’s receipts. Corporation taxes bucked the downward trend with a 29.4% increase over the July 1st to August 31st period of 2007 (or +$47 million). Combined in aggregate, the three largest tax receipt categories were short of the 2007 levels by $366 million (-5.4%).
The largest disbursement categories for July through August were local assistance and state operations. Local assistance totaled $9.3 billion, down 35.3% (-$5.1b) from last year’s disbursements. State operations totaled $4.7 billion, down 1.7% (-$81 thousand) from the disbursements last year. The July-August deficit of $4.2 billion was covered by internal borrowing. Internal loans now amount to $6 billion, and will be “repaid according to cash management procedures as resources are available.” In addition, $9.9 billion of cash and unused borrowable resources remained at the end of August 2008.
Disbursements for the 2008-09 fiscal year thus far (which started July 1st), totaled $15.9 billion, -10.3% less than the May revision estimate. This shortfall stems from payments that were not made due to the lack of a state budget (now 76 days late). Payments were shorted to school programs (contributions to state teacher’s retirement fund were -82.1% under last year), hospitals and medical clinics, and companies that supply state facilities (prisons, etc.). The health and social services sectors had the biggest disparities in disbursement levels from the previous year. The Department of Health Services (Medical Assistance Program & Other Health Services) showed a -49.5% discrepancy (-$860 thousand) and the Department of Social Services (SSI/SSP/IHSS, Cal WORKs & Other Social Services) showed a -40.3% difference (-$910 thousand) from last year’s July-August disbursement levels. (Shannon Sedgwick)
PR: http://www.sco.ca.gov/index.shtml
Tuesday, September 16: Los Angeles NABE – What is a Recession, Anyway? with Dr. Edward Leamer, Director of UCLA Anderson Forecast
Well renowned and respected economist Dr. Edward Leamer will share his views on our current economic situation.
Thursday, September 25: South Bay Economic Development Partnership: 14th Annual Economic Forecast Conference
The conference is your opportunity to learn about the present economy and how to best prepare for its future!
Tickets Now Available! Monday, November 17: The LAEDC 13th Annual Eddy Awards®
The Eddy Awards® is a cocktail, dinner, and awards gala to support fulfillment of the LAEDC mission to attract, retain, and grow businesses and jobs for the regions of Los Angeles County. The Awards were introduced by the LAEDC in 1996 to celebrate individuals, organizations, and now cities that demonstrate exceptional contributions to positive economic development in the region. Honorees: The Walt Disney Company, and Rick Caruso, developer of The Grove and the Americana.
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